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十月五号Eureka Report 供参考
At the outset, we should point out that that we choose not to forecast beyond 12 months. Frankly, we don’t believe that this can be done with any reliability. The property market is reliant on so many other macro-economic and local market factors including government policy and regulation, therefore making mid to long range forecasting near impossible. Instead, we focus on being able recognise the tell tale signs to be able to call the market up or down before anybody else.
In the most recent property boom, Australia experienced a heady mixture of first home buyer grants, stamp duty concessions and investors seeking alternative asset classes after the stock market correction. Investors and first home buyers were competing with each other fiercely to secure quality properties. Demography also plays its part; for instance baby boomers were displaying a healthy appetite for investment properties (after all they were close to paying off their family homes). More than this throw into the mix capital gains tax reforms and the money that became all too readily available through the explosion of brokers, non-bank lenders and other de-regulations of the finance industry. Surely a powerful cocktail.
It requires a number of market factors all conspiring at the same time to fuel such a robust selling environment as this. Sadly, this is not on the immediate horizon for most of Australia’s capital cities. Notwithstanding, there are signs of a possible recovery in the next 6-18 months. Firstly, the Reserve Bank may not raise interest rates after all given the slowing in business confidence and retail spending. Petrol prices have eased considerably and some believe that the stock market’s stellar run is coming to an end. Further, if cuts to stamp duty become a big electoral playing card in the upcoming NSW & VIC elections then a rising market is starting to look very probable.
More specifically, some points of data that we should keep a close eye on that will tell us when the market is taking off again are:
1) Auction clearance rates consistently over 60% and rising
2) Building approvals rising in more than 3 consecutive quarters
3) In Perth make sure you take a close look at the commodities index as median prices correlate strongly.
4) Look for days on market below 70 days and falling
5) Watch for any downward correction in the stock market
6) At least 6-12 months of stable interest rates and petrol prices
7) Vendor discounting below 6% and falling
8) Rental yields to increase to above 5%
Presently, most capital cities are a long way on the wrong side of these key metrics but things can change quickly. If you can’t remember to look out for these things don’t worry, just keep an eye on this column as we promise to call market movements first.
Michael McNamara
Sydney
Sydney Residential Auction Results
Number Listed for Auction 361
Number Unreported to Date 37
Number Auctioned 288
Number Sold 170
Number Sold After Auction 0
Number Withdrawn 36
Withdrawal Rate 11%
Clearance Rate 59%
Adjusted Clearance Rate?* 52%
Auction Median Price $675,000
Total $ Value Sold $132,720,000
*includes properties withdrawn prior to auction
snr = statistically not reliable
This week, there was considerably less auction action in Sydney, there were 361 properties listed and the week before saw a massive 610. The clearance rate rose to 52% from 47% recorded the week before. In the same week of last year, there was 221 properties up for auction and 44% of those sold.
This week, the nations top auction sale can be found In Sydney. 3 Hopetoun Av, Mosman sold prior to auction for $5.75 million. The four bedroom house was sold by LJ Hooker Mosman.
Sydney was also the home of Australia’s most affordable sale this week. 55 Helena Av, Emerton sold under the hammer for $170,000. The 3 bedroom house was sold by Richardson & Wrench Rooty Hill.
Melbourne
Melbourne Residential Auction Results
Number Listed for Auction 52
Number Unreported to Date 1
Number Auctioned 48
Number Sold 24
Number Sold After Auction 0
Number Withdrawn 3
Withdrawal Rate 6%
Clearance Rate 50%
Adjusted Clearance Rate?* 47%
Auction Median Price $440,000
Total $ Value Sold $10,490,000
*includes properties withdrawn prior to auction
snr = statistically not reliable
Due to the AFL grand final, Melbourne had the bare minimum of properties up for auction. This week there were only 52 properties listed for auction and last week there was 532. Auction numbers weren’t the only thing down with the clearance rate dropping to 47% from 60%. This time last year, there was 496 properties listed for auction and 50% of those sold.
It did however play host to the nations second highest auction with 15 Seymour Rd, Elsternwick going under the hammer for $1.730 million. The three bedroom house was sold by Talbot Birner Morley Caulfield North.
Brisbane & Gold Coast
Auction numbers were down in Brisbane with 52 properties listed this week and last week saw 89. The clearance rate also dropped down to 35% from 43% recorded the week before. In the same week of last year, there was significantly more auction action with 116 properties listed and 43% of those sold.
There were 24 properties up for auction this week on the Gold Coast, last week saw 36. The clearance rates dropped by almost half down to 25% from 49% recorded the week before. This time last year, there was significantly more happening in the auction front with 77 properties listed and only 17% sold.
Canberra
This week, Canberra saw 28 auctions and last week there were 59 properties listed. The clearance rate rose to 76% from 49% recorded the week before. This time last year, there were 7 auctions.
Adelaide
Auction numbers dropped in Adelaide. This week, Adelaide saw 54 auctions down from the 79 from the week before. The clearance rate also dropped to 50% from 68% recorded the week before. This time last year, there were 48 auctions and 57% of those sold.
Perth
This week, there were no auction in Perth but last week saw 19. This time last year, there was 13 auctions and 60% of those sold. |
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