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Doherty 研究所了解封锁限制对每个人都是多么的困难。
隧道的尽头处有光亮 - 一旦我们达到70-80%的疫苗率，Covid-19的传播会减少，得重症的人会减少，因此住院和死亡人数会减少。Covid-19不会走开，但是未来会容易控制。这些估计来自一个模型，模型由联邦政府委托Doherty研究所研发，就澳洲疫情回应的全国计划的过渡提出建议。
当达到这种疫苗率时，和病毒共存就变得容易些，就像我们也和诸如流感等疫苗共存一样。但是不可能保持根本没有病例的情况。重心将转向尽量减少住院和死亡人数。
在一个普通的流感年份，澳洲会有20万病例600人死亡。每起死亡都是悲剧，但是我们的医疗系统可以应付。在Covid-19模型里，成人人口打了70%的疫苗率结合部分公共卫生措施，6个月里会有38万5983起有症状病例，1457人死亡。如果结合以最优公共卫生措施（不封锁），数字可大幅减少到2737例病例，13人死亡。
我们通过观察其他去除所有限制的国家得知不会有什么“自由日”。 我们得保留一些公共卫生措施 - 测试，跟踪，隔离和检疫 - 让病毒复制率小于1. 但是随着疫苗率上升，我们将可以进一步放松，也不太可能再需要广泛的封锁。
到我们达到70%的疫苗率，以每天日增几十或几百率的病例开放是可能，但是对高病例数我们需要警醒的公共卫生干预。
可能看上去目前新州和维州的‘测试，跟踪，隔离和检疫’不起作用。实际上它们起作用。它们减少传播，把新州的病毒复制率从5降到1.3. 当更多人打了疫苗后这些措施将变得更为有效，因为疫苗也能起到阻止传播的作用。
我们正快速奔向这些疫苗率指标，但在通往全国70-80%疫苗率的路上也需要同时通过公共卫生措施压制Covid-19. 这会确保继续保持尽量地的住院率和死亡率，保护社区，防止医疗系统不堪负荷。
Doherty研究所领导的来自全国的建模者团队正在研究如何解决特定州和领地、特定人群和高风险环境的实施问题。
我们正走向对Covid-19更好的控制，和一个更稳定的未来。我们鼓励每个人都保持警觉，如果符合资格就打疫苗，并在向与Covid-19的共存中过渡中照料彼此。
23 AUG 2021
Statement on the Doherty Institute modelling
The Doherty Institute understands how extremely challenging lockdown restrictions are for everyone.
There is light at the end of the tunnel – once we achieve 70%-80% vaccination we will see less transmission of COVID-19 and fewer people with severe illness, and therefore fewer hospitalisations and deaths. COVID-19 won’t go away but it will be easier to control in the future. These estimates come from the modelling work completed to date led by the Doherty Institute and commissioned by the Commonwealth Government to advise on the National Plan to transition Australia's National COVID-19 Response
This level of vaccination will make it easier to live with the virus, as we do with other viruses such as the flu. However, it won’t be possible to maintain a situation where there are no cases at all. The focus will shift to keeping the number of people going to hospital and dying at a minimum.
In an average year of influenza, we would roughly have 600 deaths and 200,000 cases in Australia. Any death is a tragedy, but our health system can cope with this. In the COVID-19 modelling, opening up at 70% vaccine coverage of the adult population with partial public health measures, we predict 385,983 symptomatic cases and 1,457 deaths over six months. With optimal public health measures (and no lockdowns), this can be significantly reduced to 2,737 infections and 13 deaths.
We’ve learned from watching countries that have removed all restrictions that there is no ‘freedom day’. We will need to keep some public health measures in place – test, trace, isolate and quarantine – to keep the reproduction number below 1, but as vaccination rates increase, we’ll be able to ease up further and it is unlikely that we will need generalised lockdowns.
Once we reach 70% vaccine coverage, opening up at tens or hundreds of cases nationally per day is possible, however, we will need vigilant public health interventions with higher case loads.
It might seem that these ‘test, trace, isolate and quarantine’ measures aren’t currently working – in New South Wales or Victoria. But they are. They are stopping transmissions and reducing the effective reproduction rate from 5 to closer to 1.3 in New South Wales. These measures will become more effective with more people vaccinated as vaccines also contribute to stopping transmission.
We are moving towards these targets at a rapid pace, but we need to keep supressing COVID-19 through public health measures while we work towards 70%-80% vaccination across the country. This will ensure we continue to keep the level of hospitalisations and deaths as low as possible to protect the community and prevent our healthcare system from becoming overrun.
The team of modellers from across Australia led by the Doherty Institute is now working through the implementation issues specific to the states and territories, specific populations and high risk settings.
We are moving towards better control of COVID-19 and a more stable future. We encourage everyone to stay vigilant, get vaccinated if you are eligible and take care of each other as we transition to living with COVID-19.
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/statement-on-the-doherty-institute-modelling
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圣诞应景，来点有难度的——Peach Leaf Pie (2005-12-23) NT 
重游塔斯曼尼亚 穿梭在世界的尽头 （全文完，附十日游行程参考，尽在首页前四楼） (2019-12-8) 慕贤 
发表于 2021-8-23 22:56
发表于 2021-8-23 22:57
