20250422

lingjoy

20250422

Let’s dive into the four individual economic regions (U.S., Europe, Asia, and Australia) accompanied by four instrument markets (bond market, foreign currency market, gold market, and stock markets) to help us understand the dynamics and events occurring in regional markets deeply, sharply, and perhaps more accurately.

1. U.S.

Bond Market

Let’s start with Trump’s tariff policy war that commenced on 2 April 2025—it really scared most participants. President Trump persisted with his tariff war even as the share market trended down by 17%. It wasn’t until the bond market crashed by 10% in the following days that he paused the war with Europe for 90 days.
The main reason that pressured him to turn back 180° was the dramatic yield of treasury bond market spike, which risked killing the entire market if the government didn’t inject liquidity or intervene. The crash in the bond market, across both 10- and 30-year bonds, was exacerbated because many were leveraged and backed by hedge funds and currency funds for U.S. Treasury basis trade purposes.
As scared money escaped the share market into the bond market, treasury bond prices were pushed up and yields dropped dramatically, nearing the edge of hedge strategies’ corridors. Hedge funds had to de-leverage to avoid worse losses or credit issues. That widened the spread and triggered more de-leveraging between 7–9 April 2025 (a 2-day lag behind the equity market crash).
Foreign Currency
Unlike previous equity market crashes (e.g., March 2020, July 2024), funds didn’t flow into the bond market this time—instead, they flowed out of the U.S. dollar market (see Figure 2). The dollar index trended downward, while German bond prices increased, and even the Euro appreciated against the U.S. dollar. These are clear indicators that investors—including foreign ones—are beginning to doubt both the U.S. dollar and its backing asset: Treasury bond.
Gold Market
Without a doubt, the superstar instrument of April is gold, which jumped 17% in just two weeks. This reflects participants’ desire for physical gold—not just as a hedge—which has driven the price surge in recent months.
This week, we’ve seen more institutions and media buzzing gold even higher. But some evidence may suggest the opposite might be true. Unlike in February and March, where Tier-1 banks settled in one direction to client accounts, this week’s flows reversed. COMEX stockpiles have returned to normal, and the volume of real gold shipped to Swiss smelting plants now exceeds what will be shipped back to the London exchange. This means more physical gold is being shipped—and will continue shipping—to other countries. Iranian and Chinese customs report similar trends.
All of this suggests that in the short term (April or May), gold prices may sharply decline—after all, there’s already been a 17% gain in just two weeks.
More investors are becoming aware that monetary power is more important than ever since 1971—especially considering the volume of existing future gold contracts on the market is actually 133 times the amount of physical gold available for trade in the London exchange. (We’ll revisit this topic later.)

Tariff War (continued)

The negative impacts of Trump’s tariff policy have been widely explored. The key questions are: Why did Trump trigger this war? And where is the world heading in the short and long term?

(1) Trump grew up in the golden age of the U.S. (1960–1980), when middle-income families benefited from the first baby boom. Japan contributed capital to the U.S. during a time when the yen was weak. CPI was low, and housing was affordable. Since the late 2000s, manufacturing has increasingly relocated overseas. Deindustrialization has impacted every industry—especially process industries facing high wages, production costs, and regulation. Trump’s "MAGA" goal seems to be to return to that golden era. Otherwise, why launch the tariff war? It's clearly an effort to bring producers back to the U.S.

(2) Unfortunately, producers who benefit from low wages, low production costs, and relaxed regulations will not return unless forced by taxes or regulations. This indirectly reveals which sectors can still lead U.S. industry: banking, AI & semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, military-industrial, etc. These sectors share common features: high P/E, high margins, and high AGAR.

(3) The U.S. economy will likely suffer a recession due to the tariff war, and market volatility is rising due to Trump’s policy uncertainty. We don’t believe he can remove Mr. Powell, but a rate cut is clearly one of his goals to achieve MAGA.

The best time to re-enter will be during a market crash—when bonds, currencies (dollar index), actually we’ve done early this week (talked below), and stocks all correct. We're eyeing the next U.S. Treasury bond issuance in Q3 or Q4 2025. Until then, it’s wise to reduce exposure to U.S. markets across bonds, currencies, and equities.

2. Europe

As previously discussed, U.S. Treasuries are losing global demand, as seen in recent bond auction results (Figure 4) and the declining proportion of U.S. dollar assets in central bank reserves (Figure 5). European instruments—particularly German bonds and the EUR/USD pair—are emerging as safer alternatives during the U.S. market crash in April.

Germany is becoming increasingly attractive. In the short term, the DAX (GDAXI) may need to retest the 20,000-support line—that could be a good entry opportunity.

3. Asia (excl. Japan)  

As discussed earlier, sentiment in the U.S. market is recovering slowly—still because of Trump. His softer tone in the “war” has injected some confidence to the market. Technically, the support lines have held through the crash, so we added a  earlier this week for short-term gains (~4–8 weeks).

A-shares showed strong recovery. Recent research reveals excellent AGAR figures across sectors with significant government investment—that remains our logical long-term strategy (including Hong Kong equities).

In the short term, 22,800 is the first resistance line for the Hang Seng Index, and 3,320 for the Shanghai Composite.


下面是GPT翻译



**2025年4月22日**

让我们深入探讨四个主要经济区域（美国、欧洲、亚洲和澳大利亚）及其对应的四个金融市场（债券市场、外汇市场、黄金市场和股票市场），以便更深入、敏锐、准确地理解区域市场中的动态和事件。

**1. 美国**

**债券市场**  
从2025年4月2日特朗普发起的关税政策战说起——这场政策战确实吓到了大多数市场参与者。尽管股市已下跌17%，特朗普仍坚持关税战，直到随后几天债市暴跌10%，他才暂停与欧洲的贸易战，期限为90天。  
促使他180度转向的主要原因，是美国国债市场收益率剧烈飙升，如果政府不注入流动性或干预，整个市场面临崩溃的风险。债市的崩盘，涵盖了10年期和30年期国债，主要是因为大量资金通过杠杆方式进入了美国国债基差交易，由对冲基金和货币基金支持。  
当“恐慌资金”从股市逃向债市时，国债价格被推高，收益率大幅下降，逼近了对冲策略的界限。为了避免更大损失或信用风险，对冲基金被迫去杠杆化。这扩大了利差，并在4月7日至9日之间引发了更多去杠杆（比股市崩盘晚两天）。

**外汇市场**  
与之前几次股市暴跌（如2020年3月、2024年7月）不同，这次资金并未流入债市，而是流出了美元市场（见图2）。美元指数下跌，而德国国债价格上涨，欧元兑美元汇率也升值。这些都是投资者（包括外国投资者）开始质疑美元及其背后资产——国债的明确信号。

**黄金市场**  
毫无疑问，4月的明星资产是黄金，两周内上涨了17%。这反映了市场参与者对实物黄金的渴望，不仅仅是出于对冲目的，而是推动了近期价格的大幅上涨。  
本周，越来越多的机构和媒体进一步推高了金价，但有些迹象可能表明金价即将反转。与2月和3月不同，当时一线银行的客户账户资金流动一致，本周的资金流开始出现反向。  
COMEX的库存已恢复正常，而运往瑞士炼金厂的实物黄金已超过将被运回伦敦交易所的数量。这意味着将有更多黄金被运往其他国家。伊朗和中国海关报告也显示了类似趋势。  
这些迹象表明，短期内（4月或5月）金价可能大幅下跌——毕竟，两周内已经涨了17%。  
越来越多投资者意识到，自1971年以来，货币权力比以往任何时候都更重要，尤其是考虑到市场上现有的黄金期货合约量是伦敦交易所可交易实物黄金的133倍。（我们稍后将进一步讨论这个话题。）

**关税战（续）**  
特朗普关税政策的负面影响已经被广泛讨论。关键问题是：为什么特朗普要引发这场战？短期和长期来看，世界会走向何方？

(1) 特朗普成长于美国的“黄金时代”（1960–1980年），当时中产家庭从第一次婴儿潮中受益，日本在日元贬值时期向美国提供了大量资本。CPI低，住房可负担。然而，自2000年代后期以来，制造业不断向海外转移，去工业化对所有行业造成冲击，尤其是面对高工资、生产成本和监管压力的流程型产业。特朗普的“MAGA”目标似乎就是试图回到那个黄金时代。否则，他为何要打这场关税战？显然是想让生产商回流美国。

(2) 不幸的是，受益于低工资、低成本和宽松监管的生产商除非被征税或强制措施驱使，否则不会回流。这也间接透露出哪些产业仍有可能在美国主导经济：银行、AI与半导体、制药、军工等。这些行业的共性是：高市盈率、高利润率和高AGAR（Annual Growth at Reasonable risk）。

(3) 由于关税战，美国经济很可能陷入衰退，而市场波动性也因特朗普的不确定政策而上升。我们不认为他能罢免鲍威尔，但降息显然是他实现MAGA目标的工具之一。  
最佳重新入场时间将是市场崩盘时期——当债券、货币（美元指数）和股票同时回调时（本周初我们已开始这样做，后文将详述）。我们正关注2025年第三或第四季度的下一轮美债发行。在此之前，降低对美国市场（债券、外汇、股市）的敞口是明智的选择。

**2. 欧洲**  
如前所述，美国国债在全球的需求正在下降，这在最近的债券拍卖结果（图4）和各国央行储备中美元资产占比下滑（图5）中都得到了体现。欧洲资产，尤其是德国国债和欧元/美元汇率，正逐渐成为美国市场崩盘期间的更安全替代选项。  
德国市场变得越来越有吸引力。短期来看，DAX（德国指数）可能需要重新测试20,000点支撑线——这将是一个不错的入场机会。

**3. 亚洲（不含日本）**  
如前所述，由于特朗普态度转软，美国市场情绪正缓慢回升。他在“战争”中的缓和语调为市场注入了一些信心。从技术角度看，支撑线在本轮股灾中得以守住，因此我们本周初加仓了，预计可在4–8周内获利。

A股市场表现出强劲的复苏。最近的研究表明，在政府大力投资的板块中，AGAR指标表现极佳——这仍然是我们看好的长期逻辑策略（包括香港股票）。  
短期来看，恒生指数的首个阻力位在22,800点，沪指在3,320点。

lingjoy

Singapore

Singapore remains the most attractive destination in Asia for capital seeking safe and stable returns. Investment into the region has steadily increased over the past decades and continues to grow. Many multinational corporations and financial institutions have relocated their Asian headquarters from Hong Kong or Shanghai to Singapore, thanks to its politically secure positioning within the region.  
In an era where global economic recession is expected over the coming decades, capital preservation is becoming a central theme for many governments.  
Technically, the STI’s performance within the 3400–3800 corridor reflects strong investor confidence.  
Key sectors to watch: industrial real estate, port operations, and logistics.

4. Australia

As a net capital recipient from foreign investors across both the primary and secondary markets, the ASX and the Australian dollar display increasingly distinct characteristics. These unique traits are becoming more pronounced in the current environment.  
Insurance companies, as well as banking and non-bank financial institutions, are positioned to benefit from the weakening U.S. dollar.  
Key sectors to monitor include banks and real estate—particularly in commercial and industrial segments.  
Interest rate cuts have not been a significant market driver lately, as much of the impact has already been priced in since last week.  
For now, the prudent strategy is to wait for confirmation from upcoming economic indicators.

新加坡

新加坡依然是亚洲最具吸引力的资金避风港，尤其适合追求稳定回报的资本。过去几十年来，进入新加坡的投资持续增长。许多跨国公司和金融机构将亚洲总部从香港或上海迁往新加坡，原因正是其政治上的安全优势。  
在接下来数十年全球经济可能陷入衰退的背景下，“资金保值”将成为各国政府的核心主题。  
技术面上，新加坡海峡时报指数（STI）稳定运行于3400–3800点区间，反映出市场对其信心强劲。  
重点关注板块包括：工业地产、港口和物流。

4. 澳大利亚

作为外国投资者在初级和次级市场中的净资本接受者，澳大利亚证券交易所（ASX）及澳元显示出日益明显的独特性。这些特征在当前环境下变得愈发突出。  
保险公司、银行及非银行金融机构有望受益于美元走弱。  
值得关注的板块包括银行、商业和工业地产。  
近期降息已不再是主要市场驱动因素，因其影响早在上周已被市场充分计价。  
当前更稳妥的策略是静待即将发布的经济指标落地，以确认市场方向。

lingjoy

Key Times