墨尔本房价上涨的幅度远远超过房租升幅

villa

据3月13日墨尔本《时代报》（The Age）报道，截止到2006年底的过去10年里，墨尔本房价上涨的幅度大大超过房租升幅。

在这10年的时间里，墨尔本房租涨幅不到28％，比同期累计通胀率还低，但墨尔本房产中间价却同期上升了154％。

即使在房租上涨较快的2006年，房租升幅依然低于房价涨幅。墨尔本中位房租仅上升了2.7％，而去年墨尔本中位房价上涨了5.1％，已创出$391,000元的历史新高纪录；首次置业者购买较多的25％低价位房产，中位价也上涨了3.6％，达$290,000元。




Price of housing outstrips rent rises


March 13, 2007

THE cost of a typical house in Melbourne has dramatically outstripped the cost of renting over the past decade, data shows.

Over the 10 years to the end of 2006, Melbourne rents grew nearly 28 per cent, slightly less than the rise in overall consumer prices in Melbourne, Age analysis shows.

Median house prices jumped 154 per cent in the same period.

While Melbourne rents began to grow more quickly last year — they rose 2.7 per cent last year, compared with just 1.2 per cent in 2005, according to Bureau of Statistics data — they still increased more slowly than house prices.

Last year, the median house price rose 5.1 per cent to $391,000. Even for the bottom 25 per cent of the market, where many first-home buyers would be purchasing, the median price grew 3.6 per cent to $290,000.

Last month, Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens queried whether there was a rental crisis and said the real problem was that house prices were too high.

"Frankly … what you really want is lower prices," he told a House of Representatives committee. "… the rental yield is very low. A big reason … is that the capital value of these properties is so high."

Falling rental vacancy rates, which were 1.7 per cent at the end of last year, have led to concerns that tenants will face sharply higher housing costs as demand outstrips supply. While the ABS data for Melbourne shows strong year-on-year increases in 2006, growth for that year was about the same as inflation in Melbourne.

In only three years in the past decade, from 1997 to 1999, did average rents exceed inflation.

A separate survey by the Office of Housing, which is based on rental bond lodgements, paints a bleaker picture for renters.

It found Melbourne median rents for the year to the end of September rose nearly twice as much as the inflation rate. Over the past five years, rents in Melbourne grew in real terms by 6.5 per cent, the report found.

"Inner-Melbourne is effectively off limits to low-income renters," the Office of Housing said. "Despite holding 21 per cent of rentals, fewer than 1 per cent are affordable."

Steve Bevington, managing director of affordable rental housing provider Community Housing, said he expected conditions to deteriorate sharply if rents started to rise from their current low yields.

He tipped a surge in demand for community housing, and warned that the sector needed more money and incentives to attract investors.

"Funding levels are totally inadequate, and the State Government needs to act now to provide additional funds . . , to avoid significantly increased levels of homelessness," he said.

National Centre for Social Economic Modelling research shows the levels of housing stress — where more than 30 per cent of income is spent on rent or mortgage repayments — was likely to increase this year.

It found more than 110,000 households in Victoria, comprising renters and people with mortgages, were in housing stress.


http://www.theage.com.au/news/bu ... /1173548106800.html





[ 本帖最后由 villa 于 2007-3-13 13:19 编辑 ]

Mylittlelover

我怎么觉得房产高峰又要来了......

想去好点的区买吧, 又囊中羞涩, 何况3,40万在好区现在也买不到什么像样的房, 想再等等存点钱吧, 又眼看着房价哗啦啦的涨. 什么时候该出手, 真是一对永远的矛盾体.

像Villa这样已经买了这么漂亮的房, 还又那么划算的, 就没事偷着乐好了....  :si146

fly_cat

哪里能查到房租上涨的记录呢？有时真觉着买房不值。虽然能升值，但最终你也不能卖了呀。卖了，你还得租房

语阁

原帖由 fly_cat 于 2007-3-13 17:39 发表
哪里能查到房租上涨的记录呢？有时真觉着买房不值。虽然能升值，但最终你也不能卖了呀。卖了，你还得租房

老了后，可以卖了，租，但此时你已经一大笔银子了，或者你把房子卖了去养老院，怎么都够了，呵呵，现在很多老年人把ｈｏｕｓｅ卖了买个ｕｎｉｔ，过的很开心。。。

fly_cat

目前养老院的政策是，你没钱，政府出，你有钱，你的整个房产都抵押给养老院，你自己出钱，这是我们做age care软件学习来的。

吃喝拉撒睡

斑竹真负责。支持。

auyc

原来是这样的呀。

freetoau

原帖由 fly_cat 于 2007-3-13 18:07 发表
目前养老院的政策是，你没钱，政府出，你有钱，你的整个房产都抵押给养老院，你自己出钱，这是我们做age care软件学习来的。

政府出钱的,最多8个互不相识的人一房间,等死.自己出钱有单间,做人还保持尊严.

jeffreyxia

原帖由 freetoau 于 2007-3-13 21:24 发表

政府出钱的,最多8个互不相识的人一房间,等死.自己出钱有单间,做人还保持尊严.

俺现在的房子就是强制出租出来的的，物主已经卧床大半年了……

fly_cat

没你想象的那样，这不是中国弄成宿舍，每个人的花销是一样的，你自己出钱，也是每周300多，政府补贴也是这个钱。你要进养老院，也是政府对你进行看护级别评估，进行资产评估后，把你的钱算成bond，抵押给养老院，你老到一定程度，你的钱你不能支配，由养老院发给你零花钱。我不知道是否也分私立和公立，反正我们的那些客户，普遍都是指望政府的钱的。
有个朋友在个公立精神病医院做过一阵会计，那里病人全是靠福利，过的可不赖，除了没自由。另外，养老院，你也没自由，你有机会请假但天数有限制，而且要按时回来。因为那几天，政府只补贴很少的钱。所以我们学完了后，一致认为，挣了钱就赶紧花，向老外学习。在怎么着也要在需要进养老院之前，把钱花光。
当然，有很多人认为以后养老金制度都会崩溃，那就不好说了。反正目前看，政府就是劫富济贫的行为。 特别富有的人也不用担心，反正中产和贫民最终过的差不多。

吃喝拉撒睡

原帖由 fly_cat 于 2007-3-13 22:08 发表
所以我们学完了后，一致认为，挣了钱就赶紧花，向老外学习。在怎么着也要在需要进养老院之前，把钱花光。

这种想法不能苟同。将来的澳洲，老龄化会相当严重。那时候政府就不会像现在这么优待老人了，至少现在给一个人的钱到时候会给3个人。自己如果没有对策，单单靠政府，结果不敢想象。

villa

原帖由 吃喝拉撒睡 于 2007-3-13 22:39 发表

这种想法不能苟同。将来的澳洲，老龄化会相当严重。那时候政府就不会像现在这么优待老人了，至少现在给一个人的钱到时候会给3个人。自己如果没有对策，单单靠政府，结果不敢想象。

agree.

无论如何，将来年老的时候，单单靠养老金是比较靠不住的，还是要趁着年轻时未雨绸缪啊！

如果在悉尼，觉得目前买投资房回报不高，那么不一定非要投资地产。股市、汇市、生意等等都有可为，而自住房的话，我个人认为就能买则买了，因为不单单是要计算花掉租金这些“dead money”合算不合算的问题，更多的是要给自己的子女和家人提供一种安居的lifestyle问题了。

fly_cat

在悉尼，lifestyle恐怕是要牺牲上班路上的时间为代价，咱们不说north shore, 说说north line这条火车线，你想买house，不来个600k，是不太可能了。往西carlingford需要500k以上，再往西north parramatta 450k以上，再往西blacktown, 恭喜你有戏了，350k。
可租房，concode west, 4 bed room house, 350/week, 同样的位置，你买600k拿不下来，你自己首府150k,贷450k，每周还700多，这30年你不能丢工作。
虽然租房不值，但同样条件没压力，同样的钱可以租60年房，如果房租增长不快的话。房子坏了，自己不用修。我一直希望，能有一年，整年出去旅行，买了房的话，不等到退休，是不太可能了。

villa

原帖由 fly_cat 于 2007-3-14 11:30 发表
在悉尼，lifestyle恐怕是要牺牲上班路上的时间为代价，咱们不说north shore, 说说north line这条火车线，你想买house，不来个600k，是不太可能了。往西carlingford需要500k以上，再往西north parramatta 450k以上，再往西blacktown, 恭喜你有戏了，350k。
可租房，concode west, 4 bed room house, 350/week, 同样的位置，你买600k拿不下来，你自己首府150k,贷450k，每周还700多，这30年你不能丢工作。
虽然租房不值，但同样条件没压力，同样的钱可以租60年房，如果房租增长不快的话。房子坏了，自己不用修。我一直希望，能有一年，整年出去旅行，买了房的话，不等到退休，是不太可能了。.

租还是买，永远的话题，呵呵。

个人感觉租房的lifestyle和自住房lifestyle还是有点区别的，至少自己的房子可以放心大胆地往墙上钉东西，挂照片；也不必担心租约到期房东会涨房租。。。

2月28日《悉尼晨锋报》一篇文章对这个话题讲得很透彻，供参考：

一所大学经多年研究后发现，已买房的屋主和计划购房的买家相信，买房的利远大于弊，连正在租房的租客中也只有不到10％表示自己宁愿租房也不愿意买房。

这不仅仅单单反映在理财的层面，安全感也是人们买房的主要原因，这是高于其它所有因素的生活方式选择。（Security is the main reason people purchase a home. It is, above all else, a lifestyle choice.）

对于平时花钱大手大脚不怎么注重储蓄的人来说，买房可以说是一种强制性的储蓄，假以时日，将来资产净值上升，更可以借助再贷款等手段进行更多的房产投资，投资房的负扣税又可以进行合理避税，积累财富。

还有一个考虑的因素就是“资本增值税”（Capital Gain Tax）。如果你投资股汇市等其它投资领域，对于获利部分必须缴纳Capital Gain Tax，而自住房则可被看作合理逃避增值税的“天堂”。只要不变现，房产升值中的每一块钱都是你自己的。（Your own home is a "tax haven" as it is a CGT-free investment. This means that every dollar you make above and beyond inflation is all yours.）

对于一些将来想给子女留下点什么的人来说，买房的另一好处是可以给孩子们成长后提供一个良好的财务基础。（For some, the advantage of being a home owner lies in providing for their children and setting them up for a positive financial future.）

买房的主要缺点是首期和其它诸如律师费、估价费、印花税以及可能有的房贷保险费等是一道“门槛”。

当然，这篇文章也谈到了租房的一些好处，比如比较灵活，可以自由搬迁；不必支付council的地税，如果不是你的责任，“墙倒了也不用去扶”，可以交给房东去维修。

但是，不买房的存款你必须谨慎地去投资，而对于那些花钱无度的undisciplined savers来说，买一栋房子被强制按期付贷款可能要更好一些。（But you must invest wisely and save studiously to keep pace with the home borrower. Undisciplined savers may be better off with the discipline of buying a house and paying off the mortgage.）



:si36




Keep renting only if you're a good saver



February 28, 2007    Sydney Morning Herald


Three important factors have come together to force up rents and now it could be crunch time.

The outlook looks ugly for those who rent property. Forecasts of rent increases of up to 35 per cent over the next few years are pretty frightening.

Why is it happening? In a nutshell a couple of things:

· A glut of investment property over the past few years has kept rents low.

· That glut has now dried up as interest rates have risen and new property construction declined.

· A lot of property investors are selling to cash in and make pre-June 30 superannuation contributions, thus adding to the rental property squeeze.

So for many renters, it's decision time. To buy or not to buy? Batten down for higher rents or take advantage of the property downturn, bite the bullet and buy.

A university study a number of years ago found home owners and buyers believed the advantages outweighed the disadvantages while fewer than 10 per cent of renters said they preferred to rent rather than buy.

But that's not looking at it as a purely financial aspect. Security is the main reason people purchase a home. It is, above all else, a lifestyle choice.

With your own home you can put picture hooks where you like and knock a wall down if you don't like it, and many people simply like a dwelling to "feel like home".

The study looked at investing $50,000 in a financial institution and renting a home versus buying a home with a $50,000 deposit.

The survey found that buying a home was more sound financially, provided there was long-term ownership. This recommendation was dependent on the sale of the asset, but what is more significant is the long period (17 years) before the break-even point. Up to this time, renting appears to be a reasonable alternative.

Another survey showed that, with assumptions, someone who bought a home and held it for 25 years while paying off the mortgage would have assets about the same as someone who invested the deposit elsewhere.

But Australians are poor savers and once financially stable we tend to spend money on goods or a holiday. The danger is that the money would rarely be maintained intact in an investment account for 20 years or more.

So for the slack saver a home can provide a haven where it is not easy to get at savings. Also, it is an asset that can help you get finance later, such as using a home equity scheme.

As people's equity in their home grows, borrowings can be used for an investment property. The increased interest is then a tax deduction to help build wealth for the home owner.

Another factor to be considered is that while you may make more money on other investments, you must pay tax on the capital gains.

Your own home is a "tax haven" as it is a CGT-free investment. This means that every dollar you make above and beyond inflation is all yours.

The home is also exempt from inclusion in the pension assets test, even though it does influence the level of ownership on other assets.

For some, the advantage of being a home owner lies in providing for their children and setting them up for a positive financial future.

The major setback to home ownership is the initial cost. Not only must home owners labour over a deposit but potential home buyers must contend with establishment fees, application fees, legal fees, valuation fees and mortgage insurance on the loan. These extras came to 4 per cent of the total cost of a property.

On the other hand, paying rent in some of the city's most prestigious suburbs will be far cheaper than paying a mortgage, so the freedom to live where you please is a big plus.

On the financial side, you don't have to worry about paying council rates and if a wall falls down, provided you didn't cause it, it is not your responsibility to get it fixed.

But you must invest wisely and save studiously to keep pace with the home borrower. Undisciplined savers may be better off with the discipline of buying a house and paying off the mortgage.

Also renters tend to move more frequently than buyers, so a cost to factor in is the expense involved in moving and resettling.



http://www.smh.com.au/news/david ... /1171734068903.html

astina

基本上华人都抵不过买房自住的诱惑,我们对安居的向往是刻在骨子里的,是不可理喻的非理性的无法用数字计算的

fly_cat

从值不值钱，这个角度，买房肯定是对的，如果不考虑将财产传给下一代。从你进养老院的那一天起，你的所有资产就不是你的了，由政府支配出租，等你死了，扣掉你的花销，余下的由下一代继承。
不是不想买呀，要想交通还像现在租的这样，只有unit了，要不就找个阿里巴巴多的地区买house，交通还能保证，要不就找个偏远地区。