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澳洲两大商业银行最近披露的在美国投资市场上十几亿的亏损，让澳洲股市，特别是银行板块自由落体般地下跌。国际货币基金组织IMF则同时警告说，这股金融市场动荡的最大冲击波可能还没到来，风波还可能会从一开始的房贷市场蔓延到其他形式的贷款市场，以及更多的国家。
IMF在其一份简报中说，投资者正在提高对投资收益的预期，以弥补对市场的担忧。而商业银行势必会将水涨船高的融资成本转嫁到买房者头上。
IMF甚至暗示次贷危机很有可能牵连到发展中市场，比如世界经济发动机的中国。组织预计该风波在全球累计造成的损失将达到$A1 trillion。
Mortgage woes: the worst may be yet to come
http://business.theage.com.au/business/mortgage-woes-the-worst-may-be-yet-to-come-20080729-3mva.html
Tim Colebatch and Anne Davies
July 30, 2008
THE International Monetary Fund has warned the world to look out. It says the financial crisis that began in the US mortgage market is spreading deeper into other countries and other forms of debt - and countries that rely on foreign borrowing are vulnerable.
As the Australian stockmarket fell heavily for the third day in a row and the National Australia Bank reported that business confidence is at its lowest level since the 1991 recession, the IMF warned that falling house prices could lead to widespread losses in Western countries.
In a terse three-page update to its April report, Global Financial Stability, the IMF did not mention Australia. But it warned that global investors had become wary about where they park their money and were demanding higher premiums to lend to countries with current account deficits higher than 5% of GDP.
Australia's deficit is 6.25% of GDP, and its banks are already paying steeply higher premiums on global and Australian markets, which they pass on to home buyers and other lenders through frequent rate rises.
The IMF's warning hints that there could be more of that to come. It also warned that the crisis could spread to emerging countries such as China - the rock of the world economy - as finance becomes harder to get and inflation rises.
The IMF statement triggered further selling of shares in the major Australian banks yesterday. Commonwealth shares took the biggest hit, dropping 4.31%. NAB shares lost almost 4%.
The NAB survey found that although business confidence and actual conditions both deteriorated in the June quarter, confidence is at a 17-year low but conditions remain positive, although worsening.
The NAB lowered its forecast for GDP growth in 2009 to 2.25%. But there would be a silver lining for home buyers, with the Reserve expected to cut interest rates heavily and slice $100 a month off the typical mortgage.
Starbucks yesterday became the latest employer to announce big job losses, saying it will close 61 of its 85 Australian stores.
But Starbucks is also closing 600 stores in the US. The faltering US economy suffered more bad news yesterday with projections of a record $US482 billion ($A504 billion) budget deficit next year - equivalent to 3.3% of GDP - and the IMF warning that the housing market is nowhere near its bottom yet.
US Office of Management and Budget director Jim Nussle said the stimulus package, designed to help the US economy avoid recession, and the slowing economy were responsible for the budget gap, the worst since the 1980s.
The US is widely seen to be on the brink of recession. The IMF update also described global markets as fragile.
"While the subprime mortgage exposures had been factored into most investors' balance sheets, the growing concern is that, with delinquencies and foreclosures in the US housing market rising sharply, and house prices continuing to fall, loan deterioration is becoming widespread," it warned.
The weakness in housing had spread to other OECD countries, it said, "prompting concerns over future loan losses in the mortgage, construction and commercial property areas".
The IMF stuck to its April forecast that combined losses from the market meltdown would total about $A1 trillion. |
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涅槃重生,终于得到OFFER了 (2007-8-4) 对酒当歌 
发表于 2008-7-30 09:33
