澳大利亚人报：标普500指数将在2022年告别超额的股票收益

phzrx

标普500指数将在2022年告别超额的股票收益

美国股市有望在2021年结束时再获超额收益。许多投资者并不期待2022年再次出现这种情况。

标准普尔500指数在2021年迄今为止已经攀升了26%，而在2020年上升了16%。企业利润的急剧增长和宽松的货币政策推动了这一增长。预计明年的盈利增长将放缓，美联储正在推行加息计划，从而削弱了对股市反弹的关键支持。

当利率较低时，投资者倾向于增加风险资产，如股票以获得回报。当通货膨胀加速，政策制定者提高利率时，公司的未来收益价值下降，投资者有更多的选择来赚钱。

2020年初的谷底利率帮助推动了股票估值的上升，此后几个月里，它们一直保持着高位。许多分析师和投资者现在认为，利率上升很可能使估值无法进一步上升，并可能导致其下降。

尽管在加息周期的早期，股指通常会继续上涨，但紧缩的货币政策使投资组合经理受到更短的约束，并使他们中的许多人对承担更多风险持谨慎态度。

"我们知道会有一次加息，"Columbia Threadneedle Investments的高级投资组合经理Tiffany Wade说。"在这之前，你多久会开始围绕着估值的变化进行定位？"

根据FactSet的数据，标准普尔500指数上周的交易价格约为其未来12个月预期收益的21倍，高于略低于19倍的五年平均水平。

一些策略师认为，货币政策的转变可能有助于将股票涨幅限制在更符合其长期趋势的水平上。标准普尔500指数从1957年（该指数推出的那一年）到去年，平均每年上涨8.4%。但它正经历着三个更为强劲的年份。该指数在2019年跃升了29%，甚至超过了它在2020年和2021年迄今为止的涨幅。

"这不正常，"资产管理公司Neuberger Berman的总裁兼股票首席投资官约瑟夫-阿马托说。"那是一个非同寻常的回报期，我们的期望是你在22年不会看到这种市场表现。"

当然，我们有理由对股票预测保持谦虚。分析师无法预测世界事件，甚至无法预测市场将如何应对这些事件。许多分析师认为，在Covid-19大流行病袭击美国后，股票将在整个2020年暴跌。一年前，分析师们低估了市场2021年的反弹力度。

"一年的时间太短了，真的很难准确预测一年后的股票走势，"Janus Henderson Investors的投资组合经理Aneet Chachra说。

尽管如此，许多支持市场的结构将在明年消退。2020年和2021年的涨幅已经被政府支出和央行干预措施支撑起来，包括接近零利率。

本月，美联储为最早在明年春天开始加息奠定了基础，并批准了更快地结束债券购买刺激计划的计划。在参议员乔-曼钦(Joe Manchin)上周表示将反对民主党的大约2万亿美元（A2.77万亿美元）教育、医疗和气候方案后，该方案面临着不确定的未来。

华尔街策略师预测，标普500指数在2022年的涨幅会更小。在13家银行和金融服务公司中，其分析师已经公布了2022年的预测，标普500指数明年年底的平均目标是4940点，比该指数周四收盘时高出约4.5%。

在明年预测的高端，BMO资本市场的策略师预测标普500指数在2022年结束时将达到5300点，比当前水平高出12%。BMO团队预计，公司盈利增长将有助于推动股票上涨。

同时，摩根士丹利的策略师表示，他们的核心设想是标普500指数在今年年底达到4400点，下降6.9%。他们预计，随着债券收益率的上升，明年的市盈率将下降。

对于标普500指数这样的股票指数来说，瘦身后的估值将特别重要，因为它是由大型科技股推动的，这些股票的交易倍数往往很高。微软、英伟达、苹果、Alphabet和特斯拉最近占到了该基准指数今年涨幅的三分之一左右。特斯拉上周的交易价格约为其未来12个月预计收益的123倍，而Nvidia的交易价格约为58倍。

美国大公司的利润预计将在明年增长，尽管速度要比今年的激增慢。根据FactSet的数据，分析师估计2022年标普500指数公司的盈利将增长9.2%，低于2021年预测的45%的利润增长。

尽管如此，许多投资者表示，盈利是相信市场反弹可以持续的一个理由。

"很容易找到很多可能出错的事情，"纽约梅隆投资者解决方案公司的首席投资官史蒂夫-科拉诺说。"在一天结束的时候，收益驱动着股票市场。"

华尔街日报

------------------------
Wall Street bets S&P 500 will say goodbye to outsize stock gains in 2022

US stocks are on track to end 2021 with another year of outsize gains. Many investors aren’t expecting a repeat in 2022.

The S&P 500 has climbed 26 per cent so far in 2021, after rising 16 per cent in 2020. Rip-roaring corporate profits and easy monetary policy have fuelled the run. Earnings growth is expected to moderate next year, and the Federal Reserve is pursuing plans to raise interest rates, chipping away at key supports for the stock market’s rally.

When rates are low, investors tend to load up on risk assets such as stocks to generate returns. When inflation accelerates and policy makers raise interest rates, the value of companies’ future earnings drops and investors have more alternatives for places to make money.

Rock-bottom interest rates early in 2020 helped propel equity valuations higher, and they have remained elevated in the months since. Many analysts and investors now believe that increasing rates are likely to keep valuations from rising further, and might cause them to fall.

Though stock indexes often continue to rise early in a cycle of interest-rate increases, tighter monetary policy puts portfolio managers on a shorter leash and makes many of them guarded about taking on more risk.

“We know there’s going to be a rate hike,” said Tiffany Wade, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “How soon before that do you start to position around valuations maybe coming off?”

The S&P 500 traded last week at about 21 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little less than 19 times, according to FactSet.

Some strategists think the shift in monetary policy could help limit stock gains to levels more in keeping with their long-term trend. The S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 8.4 per cent from 1957, the year it was introduced, through last year. But it is coming off three much stronger years. The index jumped 29 per cent in 2019, even more than its advances in 2020 and so far in 2021.

“That’s not normal,” said Joseph Amato, president and chief investment officer of equities at asset manager Neuberger Berman. “That’s been an extraordinary period of return, and our expectation is you’re not going to see that kind of market performance in ‘22.”

There is reason, of course, to be humble about stock predictions: Analysts can’t forecast world events, or even how the market will react to them. Many analysts thought stocks would plunge throughout 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic hit the US. A year ago, analysts underestimated the strength of the market’s 2021 rally.

“One year is such a short period that it’s really hard to accurately forecast where stocks will be in a year from now,” said Aneet Chachra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

Still, many of the structures that have supported the market will fade next year. Gains in 2020 and 2021 have been propped up by government spending and central-bank interventions, including the near-zero interest rates.

This month the Fed laid the groundwork for interest-rate increases starting as early as next spring and approved plans to wind down a bond-buying stimulus program more quickly. Democrats’ roughly $US2 trillion ($A2.77 trillion) education, healthcare and climate package faces an uncertain future after Senator Joe Manchin said last week he would oppose it.

Wall Street strategists are forecasting smaller gains for the S&P 500 in 2022. Among 13 banks and financial services firms whose analysts have published 2022 forecasts, the average target for the S&P 500 to end next year is 4940, about 4.5 per cent above where the index closed Thursday.

On the high end of next year’s projections, strategists at BMO Capital Markets are forecasting the S&P 500 will finish 2022 at 5300, 12 per cent above its current level. The BMO team expects company earnings growth will help push stocks higher.

Strategists at Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, said their central scenario was for the S&P 500 to end the year at 4400, a drop of 6.9 per cent. They expect price/earnings multiples to fall next year as bond yields rise.

Slimmed-down valuations would be especially significant for a stock index such as the S&P 500, since it is driven by big tech stocks that often trade at high multiples. Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet and Tesla recently accounted for about one-third of the benchmark’s gains this year. Tesla traded last week at about 123 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, while Nvidia traded at about 58 times.

Profits at big US companies are expected to grow next year, though at a slower pace than this year’s surge. Analysts estimate that earnings from S&P 500 companies will rise 9.2 per cent in 2022, according to FactSet, down from the predicted 45 per cent profit growth in 2021.

Still, many investors said that earnings are a reason to be confident that the market rally can last.

“It’s easy to find a lot of things that can go wrong,” said Steve Kolano, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Investor Solutions. “At the end of the day, earnings drive the equity markets.”

The Wall Street Journal

粤式油鸡

还是美股稳

Perth好

抛硬币来得都比这帮人靠谱

phzrx

兼听则明

大杨树

好长的文章，给楼主点赞