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本帖最后由 马到成功 于 2015-12-8 13:39 编辑
BIS Shrapnel预测
1. 过去3年，悉尼房产价格上涨45%（完成时）
2. 2015/2016财年预计上涨7%（将来时）
3. 2016年年底预计加息 （预测）
4. 2016/17,2017/2018年，悉尼房价将总共下跌4%（预测）
5. 即 2015/2018，3年，悉尼房价只上涨2%
6. 悉尼房价2018年6月的房价将比2016年6月的房价相比，将下跌1%
Sydney prices up 45 per cent, correction next: BIS Shrapnel
http://news.domain.com.au/domain ... 0150628-ghykwo.html
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Speculation is growing that Sydney's long-running property boom is running out of steam, with a new report suggesting two years of falling prices.
However researcher BIS Shrapnel - noting soaring house prices of 45 per cent over the past three years - isn't expecting the price falls to hit until 2017 after an interest rate rise next year.
"Interest rates are expected to enter a tightening phase towards the end of 2016," said BIS Shrapnel analyst Angie Zigomanis in Residential Property Prospects 2015 to 2018.
The prediction of price falls follows other experts warning of challenges ahead for the Sydney property market.
CoreLogic RP Data senior research analyst Cameron Kusher was reported as saying falling rental returns suggested "the boom has got to be getting close to its end" and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver saying it was a "warning sign".
Investors were still out in force at auctions on Saturday, with Domain Group putting the clearance rate at 82 per cent. There were 672 auctions. a higher number than the same day last year. Despite being a strong result, clearances have fallen each weekend for a month.
Mr Zigomanis said the 45 per cent price growth in three years had been due to strong population growth, reasonably positive NSW economic conditions, an undersupply of homes and low interest rates.
Over 2015/2016 house prices are expected to increase 7 per cent, with these factors continuing to drive the market.
But beyond that, the combination of rising rates and increasing apartment supply were "expected to discourage both owner occupiers and investors, particularly as pent up demand pressures are beginning to ease", he said.
Struggling first home buyers, though, hoping for huge price drops, will be disappointed.
BIS Shrapnel is tipping house price falls of 4 per cent in total over 2016/2017 and 2017/2018, with the price growth over the three years to June 2018 totalling 2 per cent. This would be a real house price drop of 6 per cent, a sluggish result but not a freefall.
The increase in supply will also take apartment prices off the boil.
In June 2018, unit prices are expected to be below that of June 2015 – by 1 per cent.
"There will start a few less pressures on rents and the owners of new dwellings might have to compete a little bit harder for tenants as new projects continue to be completed," Mr Zigomanis said.
However, rates won't rise by too much, which will protect the city from a severe correction.
"It'll more just be enough to make the purchasers have second thoughts about trying to bid up prices further," he said.
The Domain Group senior economist, Andrew Wilson, said he had no expectations for price drops and he believes investor activity will continue, but at a slower pace.
"It will be a much flatter cycle going forward as there isn't the income growth to sustain price growth," Dr Wilson said.
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悉尼房产价格什么时候开始跌？
悉尼房产市场目前的趋势是继续上涨。
2015年，悉尼的房产价格将上涨15%以上，有可能达到20%的涨幅，达到近10年来的最高点。这将触发联邦和州政府在2016年的某些时间的某些打击措施。
当以下10种症状出现2种以上时，就是悉尼房产市场开始冷却的时候
当以下10种症状出现5种以上时，悉尼的house价格将跌去10%，公寓价格将跌去30%
联邦政府因素
1. 澳洲联邦政府取消50%的CGT优惠和付扣税
2. 联邦政府对海外买家征收5%额外印花税
3. 联邦政府减少移民配额30%以上
地方政府因素
4. 新州政府强行收取2%以上的exit tax
5. 新州政府变天，工党上台执政
6. 大悉尼范围内41个council强行合并成18个以内
银行因素
7. RBA第2次升息后的6个月
8. 银行取消interest only，投资房的首付提高到30%
供给因素
9. 悉尼市每年的公寓落成数量超过3.5万套
全球因素
10. 全球经济危机或类似911的突发恶性事件
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