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https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-gov-2018-06-13.html
有没有翻译达人把Philip Lowe最近的讲话全面翻一下？
RBA 说next move in interest rate will be UP， 金融市场认为2020之前不会加息， 这两者其实不矛盾。
Philip Lowe 最近的讲话一改以前对加息时间遮遮掩掩的态度，非常明确，短期内不会加息。
加息需要通胀水平恢复到长期水平，目前通胀太低，主要因为工资增长低于长期水平。加快工资增长需要劳动力市场的结构性改变（比如加快新技术的应用），短期内不会实现的。
我把关于货币政策部分原文摘录：
Subsequent to the Board meeting, the national accounts provided confirmation that the Australian economy is moving in the right direction. If this continues to be the case, it is likely that the next move in interest rates will be up, not down. It is, however, important to remember that the environment in which interest rates are increasing is also likely to be one in which people's incomes are growing more quickly than they are now. This will help.
Any increase in interest rates, however, still looks to be some time away. The Board will want to have reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up to be consistent with the medium-term target and that slack in the labour market is lessening. At this stage, a sustained pick-up in inflation to around the midpoint of the target range is likely to require faster wages growth than we are currently experiencing. There are reasonable grounds to expect that this increase in wages growth will occur. But for the reasons I have spoken about today, this increase is likely to be only gradual. Given this, there is not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.
With things moving in the right direction, the Board's view is that by holding rates steady, we can help promote a sense of stability and confidence. We hope that this helps Australians make the decisions that can help build the future prosperity of the country that we are so fortunate to live in. |
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昏天黑地打工记（外加稀里糊涂闯江湖） (2004-12-10) horseanddragon 
谁说上海人不会做面点 (2008-3-9) 南十字星下 
发表于 2018-6-20 11:45
足迹定律
