市场相关经济金融新闻研究摘要及趋势讨论

papayabu

此贴是想把自己平时看到的股市相关金融经济新闻或研究，觉得有意思，有价值的拿出来分享，附上一些自己浅薄的解读。

希望能抛砖引玉，大家一起来分享。

本帖仅做经济金融股票交易讨论，请不要歪楼或讨论房市。

免责声明：本文中的分析，观点或其他资讯均为市场评述，不构成交易建议，仅供参考，投资时请谨慎决策，风险自担。


19/06/2017

继五月S&P 下调澳洲中小银行评级后，moody’s 下调含四大共12家银行的信用评级（也下调了新西兰银行的评级），理由为房贷增长所带来的尾部风险增加。

因只有moody’s 调整信用评级（注：S&P 五月刚刚做完review，目测不会在中短期内继续调整评级），目前不会影响到spread。倘若其它评级机构跟进，目测将会影响spread 10bps。

个人解读：银行股今日下跌（westpac, anz 跌幅 ~1%），此次评级调整只有moody’s一家，雷声大，雨点不大。
后续则是apra因评级下调，会增加对银行房贷的资本需求，进而影响房贷利率（详情参考下条）。

有意思的是，倘若今后各大评级机构均下调评级，银行却可能会因此盈利。
相同的事情曾在GFC发生过，叫做DVA benefit. 有兴趣的可以了解下。

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finan ... ed-by-DVA-rule.html


Article from AFR

In May S&P downgraded the ratings of regional banks while keeping the majors' ratings on hold. Also at that time, S&P increased Australia's risk factor score due to the build-up of household debt and rising property prices that S&P believes has made the financial system vulnerable.

On 19th of June, Moody's downgraded the long-term credit ratings of 12 domestic banks including big 4, due to very high levels of household leverage;
-        This will not have an impact on funding costs because it merely brings to Moody's equivalent to fellow ratings agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch;
-        "Elevated risks within the household sector heighten the sensitivity of Australian banks' credit profiles to an adverse shock," Moody's said;

Deutsche's Mr Triggs said while the downgrade by Moody's "has few implications for funding costs or the actions of other rating agencies, we still see some chance that S&P downgrades the majors due to either a sovereign rating downgrade or a reduction in government supportiveness". "If this were to occur, we have previously estimated the impact on the majors' long term funding spreads to be around 10 basis points". Mr Triggs said this would reflect a 1 to 2 per cent reduction in net profit spread over several years.

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/business/b ... 0170619-gwuafj.html

papayabu

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20/06/2017

继moody's下调评级后，银行做好APRA或继续增加对房贷资本需求的准备

The banks are already bracing themselves for an ann in the coming days from APRA, which is due to say whether it requires the banks to hold more capital against their mortgage books as part of a wider update on capital requirements.

个人解读：APRA对银行的主要控制手段就是加资本成本后再继续增加资本成本。
倘若资本需求继续增加，必然增加贷款成本进一步影响银行的房贷利率，收缩房贷市场。这种结果也是监管者想要看到的。
（去年apra要求银行mortgages RWA minimum 28%，这次到多少不知道，但是房市未冷，手段要继续强硬）

http://www.smh.com.au/business/t ... 0170619-gwufh4.html

vr3ok

每个人的信息渠道都不一样，希望借这个帖子 大家能踊跃分享，如果能附带原新闻出处和链接那是最棒的了！

qingtaoxiaohao

不用担心，多军会举出2008年的例子的，房价要涨。
个人同意楼主看法，审慎监管局肯定会继续要求银行做压力测试，例如恢复到8-9%银行是否能承受，不行就要增加准备金率。
接着就是类似去年，例如ANZ好像27块招股，然后很快就跌到22.
接着就是银行为了维持股价加息，再接着就是大量华人房东加租，然后房客不付房租跟房东大大出手，
最后房东打不过只能在每周工作5天之外，周六周日继续找份工打，应对利息上涨和房客欠租

mdlp

没事~~~

BIH

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/20 ... r-profit-collapsing

looks like DVA is no longer profitable to the bank.

ilovebanana

这个好，我建议建个群讨论吧。我们做数据分析的

qingtaoxiaohao

qingfengsan 发表于 2017-6-20 17:19
貌似有道理，不过不是一直说房客都是大爷一样的，这么多年大爷了还没养尊处优的养的肥头大耳不中用？？？ ...

多好的一个贴啊，我们就不要歪楼了。

papayabu

qingtaoxiaohao 发表于 2017-6-20 17:41
多好的一个贴啊，我们就不要歪楼了。
顺便说一句打架不看谁壮，谁练过。看的是谁狠。你看中国之前判那几 ...

楼上讨论打架的各位能把自己的帖子编辑下吗，谢谢了。

本帖仅做经济金融股票交易讨论，请不要歪楼或讨论房市。

becoset

看来看去文章的意思就是银行股要涨。

我看这次四大至少得倒下一个。

papayabu

21/06/17


Today ASX is not having a good day。油价继续下跌 2.2%到 $43.23。铁矿依旧在$56左右浮动。
QBE, RFG调整盈利预期。市场预感即将来临的年报/trading update季，也许不会太好看。
QBE目前为止达到了8%的跌幅，影响其盈利与其的原因之一是claims增加（emerging markets，亚洲，拉丁美洲claims增多等等）。Premium income保持预期。

昨日Morgan stanley预期未来一年asx200将下跌10pct（约5200点），due to slowdown in earnings momentum (i.e. banks, materials and telcos).

文章中提到一些防御型的股票：
-        Ansell ， Orora, Treasury Wines, Sonic Healthcare, LendLease and Corporate Travel Management,
-        gold miners Resolute Mining and Northern Star Resources.

外，Morgan stanley年初时预测今年的best case scenario 是6000点，现在回过头来看有些观点依然hold。链接如下：

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/ ... f84534d4d6361c5d5a3

http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... 0170620-gwukr8.html

papayabu

21/06/2017

Woodmac 给出了2Q17全球金矿产出供给分析:
-        按总体供给来看，年均价预测为$1250 （区间$1100 - $1400），价格或有上行风险；
-        预测Total Cash Cost plus Sustaining Capital (TCPS) gold mining costs 会超过US$900/oz （AUD ~$1180）；
-        储备消耗将会使2017后供应减少，全球mined production会逐渐在2017年到达最高点。
-        Reserve attrition due to mine plan adjustments and price-related cuts are expected to outweigh incentivized project development post 2017. expect this will lead to a decline in mined supply from 2018-2020.

papayabu

21/6/2017

中国首次被加入msci 市场新兴指数（global emerging markets benchmark index），其对a股的影响也是众说纷纭。
每个国家情况不同，中国不能与韩国台湾一概而论。
小女子薄见是此番加入是历史必然，milestone event，过去未曾被加入多少因为政府的股市的干预。
也是长期利好，可打开a股的资金容量。

同时对开放市场，减少干预，加强监管和增加市场透明度也有着促进作用。

AFR Article:

China's first step into MSCI emerging markets benchmark is a game-changing move

-        That initial small weighting is tipped to increase over time and Anderson, SSGA's head of investments, Asia-Pacific, says China A-shares are estimated to increase to as much as 15 per cent of the index from an initial 0.5 per cent;
-        As China continues to open up its capital markets the yuan will end up in more assets, more portfolios and more bank accounts right across the world；
-        Making the MSCI cut does mark a very important step in China's aim to be a major player in global markets but some still question the control it also wants to exert over its own financial market.
-        China will need to keep working on making its financial markets more open and that includes giving more access to foreign investors and addressing fears over capital controls. At the moment policymakers seem intent on keeping their grip on the yuan so it implies they are in no hurry.

http://www.afr.com/opinion/colum ... wv9cm#ixzz4kbn2Ovq3

maybeming

没来得及翻译，对s32有个不利消息
JOHANNESBURG, June 21 (Reuters) - Ratings agency Moody's warned on Wednesday that new regulations seeking to accelerate black ownership in South Africa's mining industry would deter investment, raise costs and diminish cashflow generation.

Anglo American AMSJ.J AAL.L , AngloGold Ashanti ANGJ.J , Gold Fields GFIJ.J , Petra Diamonds PDL.L , Sibanye Gold SGLJ.J and South32 (S32) S32J.J would be the most negatively affected miners if the revised mining charter is implemented, Moody's said.

The government published its revised mining charter on June 15, raising the minimum threshold for black ownership of mining companies to 30 percent from 26 percent.

"The higher Black Economic Empowerment equity holding requirement is credit negative because it will likely require miners to use cash or raise debt to facilitate the equity transfer," Moody's said in a statement.

Black Economic Empowerment is meant to include more blacks in the economy, which is still firmly in the hands of whites more than two decades after the end of apartheid.

The ratings agency added that it expects current shareholders to be unlikely to support a further dilution of their equity interests.

The warning echoed a statement by ratings agency Fitch on Monday, which said the government was prioritising radical transformation even if it leads to a weaker business climate and hampers growth.

The Chamber of Mines, which represents mining companies, said it would challenge the new rules in court, arguing that there had been insufficient consultation.

The mining sector accounts for about 7 percent of South Africa's economic output.

maybeming

南澳在federal 6b 银行税的基础上加征280m洲政府税。。。虽然对于银行不多，但澳洲政府也够流氓的

SYDNEY, June 22 (Reuters) - An Australian state said on Thursday it would introduce a new tax on the country's five biggest banks amounting to $280 million over four years - a move that comes on the heels of a surprise $4.6 billion federal levy on the same lenders.

South Australia, the country's fifth-largest state by population, announced the tax in its budget to help fund job-creation initiatives.

It said it will impose a 6 basis point tax on 6 percent of the assets being taxed by the federal government, adding that it had derived that percentage as the state accounts for 6 percent of the national economy. The measure will raise A$370 million ($280 million) over the first four years.

"The profits of the big banks are large - in the last year alone the five banks have collectively made profits of about A$30 billion after tax," South Australian Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis said in a statement.

"They can and should contribute more to economic growth and job creation in this state."

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (WBC), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), National Australia Bank (NAB) and Macquarie Group (MQG) will be subject to the state levy in addition to the federal tax that was passed into law on Monday.

The Australian Bankers Association (ABA), which represents the major banks, did not respond immediately to a request for comment. ABA Chief Executive Anna Bligh said last week that imposing a tax on parts of the banking sector because of its financial success set a "worrying precedent" for other industries.

Australia's banks have come under scrutiny by politicians and the public following a series of scandals involving misleading financial advice, insurance fraud and alleged interest-rate rigging